Is The SPL Destined For Its Tightest League Ever?

The SPL season will have its first full schedule of games this weekend, however, if the first few weeks are to be considered then it is very likely that draws may be the order of the day. Seven of the first 15 matches played in the Scottish Premier League this season have ended in draws, while another five have been one by the odd goal and only four of the matches have seen a team score more than one goal.

So what is resulting in the increase in draws between clubs? The Full Ten Yards argues that an increase in the quality of the so called ‘bottom six’ , plus the continued closing gap between the ‘other’ ten and the Old Firm is causing games to be tighter and the inevitable increase in draws is due to the ten teams outside of the big two slowly becoming on level par with each other.

Last season, it was only Killie that upset the top six, rising from 11th the previous season to a 5th position finish. However, this season it looks as if any of last seasons bottom five plus newly promoted Dunfermline could challenge for a top six position.

The Full Ten Yards looks at the strengthening of the bottom six and the increase in quality throughout the league.

Last Season’s top four outside the Old Firm: Hearts, Dundee United, Kilmarnock and Motherwell have all lost big players from last season, with only Hearts seemingly replacing their lost talent. However, Hearts do have the poison chalice of their managerial position and the pressure that has been put on new manager Paulo Sergio to follow Jim Jefferies third placed finish last season. From last season Hearts have lost Lee Wallace, while bringing in Jamie Hamill, Danny Grainger, Mehdi Taouil and John Sutton. At first look the players seem good additions, but again it is the manager and how he performs that will decide where Hearts finish this year.

Dundee United and Kilmarnock have been the two biggest losers of their stars, Craig Conway, Morgaro Gomis, Prince Bauben and David Goodwillie leaving United, while Taouil, Bryson, Hamill and Eremenko departed from Killie. The respective managers at both teams have tried to replace them, but it is how the new players gel with the squad that will decide where they finish.

Motherwell have only lost John Sutton, and if they can keep a hold of Jamie Murphy they should do well. However, the have also lost Steven Saunders to a season long injury, and it is making sure if they do lose Murphy that Michael Higdon is a decent enough replacement who will get them goals.

So the top four outside the Old Firm have lost key players/managers and that will bring them back to the level of everyone else, making the league as open as ever. Furthermore, while the top four have been weakened, the bottom six have added to their squads and look stronger than they did last season.

Aberdeen have lost Zander Diamond and Chris Maguire, however, both were very hot and cold with some moments of brilliance but also some horror moments from both individuals. Their replacements are steady decent players and the returning Ricky Foster is a good boost for the Dons. The other positive is this being Craig Brown’s first full season at the club, and he is sure to have the defence sorted out and not conceding as much as they did under Mark McGhee.

Calum Woods was the only loss for newly promoted Dunfermline, as he left to join Huddersfield in league one. Moreover, Jim McIntyre has added to his squad very astutely bringing in some players with experience in the SPL and also players who have played for a while in the First Division that now deserve a chance at a higher level. From their opening two games, they have shown that they will be no pushovers.

Colin Calderwood has also not lost many players at Hibs, and those he has lost, he has replaced with better players in Garry O’Connor, Ivan Sproule and Isaiah Osbourne. If they manage to sort out their goalkeeper curse, or if one of their current ‘keepers finds a bit of form then they are likely to have a very good season.

Inverness have lost their talisman Adam Rooney to Birmingham, however, they have strengthened in other positions with both Greg Tansey and Gregory Tade looking exciting acquisitions. If Terry Butcher can find a goalscorer who can score double figures in a season then they will win games against everyone else.

St. Johnstone have lost of a few good players but they have replaced them with experienced SPL players in Frazer Wright (5 years at Killie), Carl Finnegan (3 years in SPL at Falkirk), David Robertson (5 years at Dundee United) and Cillian Sheridan (3 years in SPL at Celtic and Motherwell). All these players are solid players at SPL level, however, it is scoring goals that could be St. Johnstone’s problem.

St. Mirren have started the season in a blaze of glory, receiving praise from all areas of the press for their silky football. Danny Lennon really has made his own team this season, and the signings of Gary Teale and Steven Thompson have added experience to the side. Nigel Hasselbaink has also shown more than he did at Hamilton last season and looks to be a player who can add a bit of flair to the Buddies.

All six of the bottom six teams last season have strengthened, while only Hearts and maybe Motherwell could say that in the top six. This season shall show a closer league and a very open division below the Old Firm. All teams will be able to take points off each other and shall do for most of the season. The teams in the top six this year will be those that can put together decent unbeaten runs in the middle of the season. The lowest points separating third from bottom was 22 in the 08/09 season and if things continue going the way they have started it is very likely that that total may be close to being matched or even beaten. It is safe to assume that this year will be the most open SPL in years.

Posted in: Relegation,Scottish Football,SPL,Top Six